ECONOMIC FORECASTING - 2017/8

Module code: ECO3047

Module provider

Economics

Module Leader

CAMPONOVO L Dr (Economics)

Number of Credits

15

ECT Credits

15

Framework

FHEQ Level 6

JACs code

L100

Module cap (Maximum number of students)

N/A

Module Availability

Semester 2

Overall student workload

Lecture Hours: 11

Tutorial Hours: 11

Assessment pattern

Assessment type Unit of assessment Weighting
Coursework COURSEWORK - APPLIED TAKE HOME, 2500 WORDS 25%
Examination 2 HOUR EXAMINATION 75%

Alternative Assessment

Not applicable.

Prerequisites / Co-requisites

None

Module overview

Introduction to economic forecasting. The module covers the following topics: forecasting the trend, ARMA models of the cycle, modelling seasonality, forecasting with macroeconomic models, assessing forecasts and smoothing methods.

Module aims

examine the principles and the practice of making forecasts to aid decisions, develop the relevant techniques and use appropriate software to build forecasting models and make and assess forecasts

Learning outcomes

Attributes Developed
Identify appropriate forecasting models for a variety of situations C
Apply different forecasting methods using relevant computer software PT
Understand the statistical properties of ARIMA and macroeconomic forecasting models C
Be aware of the limitations of forecast results C

Attributes Developed

C - Cognitive/analytical

K - Subject knowledge

T - Transferable skills

P - Professional/Practical skills

Module content

Indicative content includes:


Deterministic and stochastic trends and cycles
Identification, estimation and forecasting with ARMA models
Modelling seasonality
Forecasting with macroeconomic models
Smoothing methods

Methods of Teaching / Learning

The learning and teaching strategy is designed to:

Lectures provide an understanding of appropriate forecasting models for different situations (including ARIMA and macroeconomic forecasting models) and of the limitations of forecasts. Tutorials give experience in applying appropriate software to build and critically assess forecasting models.

The learning and teaching methods include:


1 hour lectures x 11 weeks
1 hour tutorials x 11 weeks

Assessment Strategy

The assessment strategy is designed to provide students with the opportunity to demonstrate


knowledge of appropriate forecasting models for different purposes and their limitations
the practical ability to build and assess forecasting models using real data


Thus, the summative assessment for this module consists of:


A take-home piece of coursework (2500 words) requiring students to build and assess a forecasting model for an assigned country using appropriate software. Deadline around week 9
A two-hour examination covering the forecasting models discussed in the lectures


Formative assessment and feedback

Tutorials to provide verbal feedback on the exercises which teach the use of software to build forecasting models and help prepare students for the coursework

Reading list

Reading list for ECONOMIC FORECASTING : http://aspire.surrey.ac.uk/modules/eco3047

Please note that the information detailed within this record is accurate at the time of publishing and may be subject to change. This record contains information for the most up to date version of the programme / module for the 2017/8 academic year.